The Black Swan Event of March 2020 in Indian Stock Markets

black swan march 2020

The Indian stock market is sailing in uncharted waters. We have not seen such a bloodbath on the indices in the last decade. No doubt this will be known in history as the Black Swan event of March 2020 in the Indian stock markets

Check out the original article posted on my LinkedIn page on March 16, 2020

The volatility index is at 58.61 even as I write this, which again doesn’t have a precedent in the last decade. This is an indicator of fear prevailing among the investors and the resultant volatility in the markets.

Everyone is asking the same question. Have the markets bottomed out? Are we going to see a reversal? Or are we still going to go down?

These are questions that no one can answer for certain. However as investors, we can tread with precaution and take long term bets without risking too much exposure on total capital.

Market Outlook

Nifty 50 is trading at 9175 even as I am writing this. The 100 EMA on monthly charts shows a support at 8818 levels. Till now the market has not given a close below these levels though it had gone down to 8555.

If it breaks this support, there is a very good chance that Nifty can see 7825 or even 6400 levels. Let’s hope this doesn’t happen.

If there is some good news about Corona, we may start seeing a slow recovery next month onwards.

Market Update on the Black Swan March 2020

Update as on 23 March 2020:
The worst is coming true. Volatility index which indicates fear in the market has climbed up to an unprecedented high of 70.85 levels. Nifty has gone down to 7800 levels. Trading had to be halted on 2 occasions due to a
lower circuit on the indices. But it may still slide down further to 6400 levels.

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The Black Swan Event of March 2020 in Indian Stock Markets
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